WASHINGTON | Utility-scale solar generation is forecast to surpass coal generation in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas grid for the first time on an annual basis in 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The EIA said solar generation in ERCOT, which serves most of Texas, is expected to reach 78 billion kilowatt-hours in 2026, compared with 60 billion kilowatt-hours from coal. The agency also forecast solar generation rising to 99 billion kilowatt-hours in 2027, compared with 66 billion kilowatt-hours from coal.
The shift does not mean fossil fuels are disappearing from the Texas power system. Natural gas remains a major part of the state’s electricity mix, and grid reliability still depends on how generation, storage, transmission and peak-demand management work together.
The Texas forecast matters nationally because ERCOT is one of the country’s most closely watched power markets. Growing solar output, rising electricity demand and the need for dispatchable backup capacity are forcing utilities, regulators and large power users to plan for a more complicated grid.
The practical issue for consumers is not only which resource produces the most power over a year. It is whether the grid can deliver reliable electricity during heat waves, winter events and high-demand evening hours when solar output falls.
Additional Reporting By: U.S. Energy Information Administration; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook; Reuters