GENEVA | El Niño has returned, according to NOAA, raising the probability of significant shifts in heat, rainfall, drought and agricultural conditions across multiple regions during the remainder of 2026.
What NOAA declared
NOAA issues an El Niño advisory when ocean and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific meet established thresholds and are expected to persist.
Sea-surface temperatures are above average and atmospheric circulation is responding.
Forecasters expect the event to strengthen into winter.
A strong event is possible
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the event could become strong or very strong.
The World Meteorological Organization earlier reported a high probability of El Niño continuing into late 2026.
Strength increases the odds of typical effects but does not guarantee them everywhere.
Global heat
El Niño transfers heat between the ocean and atmosphere and can contribute to higher global temperatures.
It operates on top of long-term human-driven warming, increasing the potential for record conditions.
Individual heat waves still depend on regional weather patterns.
Rainfall and flooding
Some regions experience wetter conditions during El Niño, increasing flood and landslide risks.
Urban drainage, soil moisture and storm timing determine whether heavy rain becomes a disaster.
Preparedness should use regional forecasts rather than a global label.
Drought
Other regions may experience reduced rainfall, affecting reservoirs, wildfire risk and agriculture.
Drought impacts accumulate over time and depend on water management and existing conditions.
Governments should monitor seasonal outlooks and crop calendars.
Food systems
El Niño can affect coffee, cocoa, rice, wheat and other commodities by changing rainfall and temperature.
Poor harvests in several regions can raise food prices and increase humanitarian needs.
Trade, reserves and farm support can reduce the impact.
Forecast uncertainty
Seasonal forecasts express probabilities, not exact daily weather.
Even a very strong event can produce unexpected regional outcomes.
Communicators should avoid claiming that El Niño caused every storm or drought.
What to watch
NOAA, WMO and national agencies will update strength and regional outlooks.
Emergency planners should connect seasonal risk to local infrastructure and vulnerable communities.
The useful message is preparation for tilted odds—not certainty about a particular disaster.
Additional Reporting By: NOAA; NOAA Climate Prediction Center; World Meteorological Organization; and International Research Institute for Climate and Society.