SAN FRANCISCO | Meta is reportedly developing a standalone prediction-market app that would let users make forecasts about real-world events with play money while using artificial intelligence to generate questions and recommendations.
NPR reported that Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg instructed a team to build a standalone app, internally known through project names including Arena, where users would receive a daily virtual allotment of play money instead of wagering real cash. Reuters also reported that Zuckerberg directed Meta to create a prediction-markets app, citing earlier New York Times reporting.
What happened
The project would be separate from Facebook and Instagram and would compete with prediction-market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. NPR reported that internal documents describe Meta using its Llama model to generate questions from trending topics and recommend markets to users.
The idea echoes Meta’s earlier Forecast app, a crowdsourced prediction product the company wound down after the pandemic period. The new version appears designed to reduce manual curation by letting AI help create and organize market questions.
Why it matters
Prediction markets sit at the intersection of technology, finance, gambling, politics and regulation. Even if Meta begins with play money, the company would be entering a space already facing legal questions over event contracts, political markets, consumer risk and market manipulation.
For Meta, the app would be another attempt to build a standalone product outside its core social networks while using AI to make the service easier to scale.
What remains unclear
It is unclear when Meta would release the app, which topics it would allow, whether it would ever add real-money features, and how regulators would treat an AI-driven prediction-market product connected to a company with Meta’s reach.
What to watch next
Readers should watch for Meta product announcements, app-store listings, regulatory filings, statements from prediction-market regulators and whether the company keeps the project limited to virtual currency.
Additional Reporting By: NPR; Reuters; Business Insider